The history of probabilistic cost estimating in the Netherlands is briefly described. At first only normal events were modelled probabilistically. This could however not explain the frequent average cost overruns and the large variation. To close the gap special events, incidents and accidents, were hypothesised. The introduction of these hypothetical events explained the overrun and the large uncertainty. The analysis of completed projects showed that indeed one to two major accidents or mistakes occur in most projects. Special events were proven to exist. Other effects like the correlation of normal and special events were proposed too, but their effect seems to be limited. Currently the
gap between the probabilistic estimate and the actual costs of the completed project still exists. It is stated that only a scientific
approach, that adds clear hypotheses to the estimating model and consequently checks in reality if the model predicts the final costs accurately, will close the gap.
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