Probabilistic Risk Analysis

Special Interest Group Probabilistic Risk Analysis (SIG PRA)

SIG PRA consists of 12 enthusiastic members from engineering and consultancy firms, public-sector clients, contractors and industry. Within SIG PRA, knowledge relating to uncertainties in cost estimates and schedules is shared, researched and developed. The focus is on applying mathematical techniques in the daily practice of cost estimating. In addition to quantitative techniques, attention is also given to qualitative aspects.

Objectivies of SIG PRA
SIG PRA aims to:

• Collect, exchange and further develop probabilistic calculation techniques, supporting tools and methodologies;
• Critically evaluate models and calculations and subject them to scientific validation;
• Improve the interpretation and use of the results of probabilistic analyses by and for users, decision-makers and others who are not directly involved in the technical aspects;
• Establish a common language for discussing uncertainties in cost estimates across different industries.

Topics

• Requirements for predictive (cost estimating) models and measuring their quality
• Quantification of residual risks
• Definitions (statistics and stochastic methods)
• Decision-making based on probabilistic risk analysis
• Objective and subjective algorithms
• Expert opinions in relation to quantifying risks and uncertainties
• Setting up risk analyses
• Parametric design models in relation to cost models
• Methods for quantifying correlations based on expert opinions
• @RISK modelling and how @RISK modelling works

Organisation

SIG PRA is currently led by two rotating Chairs who coordinate the programme together with the participants: Arno Willems (Iv-Infra) and André Bijl-Weisz (Province of North Holland). Administrative support is provided by the DACE office.

The SIG reports to the DACE Board twice a year. The SIG Chairs maintain contact with the Chair of the DACE Board.

Meeting Frequency
Meetings are normally held once a quarter, lasting half a day on a Friday morning. Every two to three years, SIG PRA organises a DACE networking meeting.

Contact
For more information about SIG PRA, you can send an email to info@dadce.nl.

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